Provisional answers, decision-making and over-analysis Part II
Part I
If you are looking to establish what is the once-and-for-all truth of a thing, you will be waiting around forever. If you are looking to make the best decision possible, you will take the information available, the best information available, and make a decision based on that. But you will realize that that decision is provisional, that it is subject to change when better information comes along. The good thinker will be ready to make the change when that better information comes along.
The other problem comes with the fact that there is no way to decide one solution is better than another in the abstract. The trash bin of history is full of ideas that looked very good on paper and that were even brainstormed and had the support of smart people. But in the end how do you know that it is any better than any other idea that might have been thought up? On paper, the arguments can be made and those arguments can be extremely rational. But the only way you can tell is if it actually works on the ground or when you "fire it up." That means that good critical thinking and good solutions are always made with an eye on the ground or, to put it another way, with an eye to context. If it doesn't work in reality, or in the reality you are working with (the market, the environment, etc.) it is not a good idea no matter who was behind it at first, no matter the brain power that went into it at first and no matter how much money it took to come up with at first. If it does not work on the ground or in context, it is a bad idea. Period.
This may seem to be obvious but again, history is full of ideas that looked good in the brainstorming sessions and worked out wonderfully on paper but crashed and burned when they were implemented.
Isn't that something we won't be able to figure out until we actually fire the thing up? We cannot completely tell that yes. But there is a lot we can understand about it even in the developmental stages if we do keep the context in mind from the start.
If you are looking to establish what is the once-and-for-all truth of a thing, you will be waiting around forever. If you are looking to make the best decision possible, you will take the information available, the best information available, and make a decision based on that. But you will realize that that decision is provisional, that it is subject to change when better information comes along. The good thinker will be ready to make the change when that better information comes along.
The other problem comes with the fact that there is no way to decide one solution is better than another in the abstract. The trash bin of history is full of ideas that looked very good on paper and that were even brainstormed and had the support of smart people. But in the end how do you know that it is any better than any other idea that might have been thought up? On paper, the arguments can be made and those arguments can be extremely rational. But the only way you can tell is if it actually works on the ground or when you "fire it up." That means that good critical thinking and good solutions are always made with an eye on the ground or, to put it another way, with an eye to context. If it doesn't work in reality, or in the reality you are working with (the market, the environment, etc.) it is not a good idea no matter who was behind it at first, no matter the brain power that went into it at first and no matter how much money it took to come up with at first. If it does not work on the ground or in context, it is a bad idea. Period.
This may seem to be obvious but again, history is full of ideas that looked good in the brainstorming sessions and worked out wonderfully on paper but crashed and burned when they were implemented.
Isn't that something we won't be able to figure out until we actually fire the thing up? We cannot completely tell that yes. But there is a lot we can understand about it even in the developmental stages if we do keep the context in mind from the start.
posted by Scott W. Clark at 2:30 AM
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